Inside the Wizards' rebuild: How Washington is trying to construct a contender

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WASHINGTON -- Washington Wizards general manager Will Dawkins opened his third annual pre-training camp news conference Wednesday with a message to the team's long-suffering fans. Dawkins praised the fan base for its loyalty, basketball knowledge and passion. Nice compliments, and seemingly heartfelt, but not groundbreaking.

Then Dawkins did something interesting. He sought to reassure the fans.

"We do know that we're rebuilding," Dawkins said. "Under (president) Michael Winger's leadership, our front office has a little over two years here now. We have a very clear vision for where we're going, and we've developed a plan to get there. Know that.

"I also know that rebuilding, it isn't easy. Nor is it linear. I know you guys have heard me use those words before. We know it's not just hard on the players going through it, but it's hard on you guys as fans, too. But I want you to know that you guys can trust that we're laying a foundation here that will make us more sustainable, it'll make us flexible and more consistent over time, and that's the goal, and we're committed to that."

Over the next 41 minutes, however, Dawkins offered few specifics about how -- apart from upgrades to the team's facilities, development staff and resources for players -- he and his colleagues intend to transform the Wizards from an NBA cellar-dweller into a contender. A plan is in place, but the fans don't necessarily know what it is, at least not beyond generalities.

This article will explain the roster-construction plan by identifying its key components.

Wizards officials acknowledge that scouting and drafting are inexact sciences, especially when evaluating 18-, 19- and 20-year-olds who have limited experience competing against high-level competition.

No team is perfect. Even the Oklahoma City Thunder, with their vaunted draft-and-develop system, sometimes whiff on prospects.

Washington's front office has prioritized taking as many "swings" or "bites at the apple" on young talents as possible, expecting that at least some of them will develop into rotation players on a contending-level team and hoping that one or more of them will develop into high-leverage starters on a contending team.

The Wizards' roster includes nine players who were picked in the first round of the last three drafts. They are Bilal Coulibaly and Cam Whitmore from the 2023 draft; Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, AJ Johnson, Kyshawn George and Dillon Jones in 2024; and Tre Johnson and Will Riley from several months ago.

Team officials aren't merely acquiring these players and leaving their growth to chance. Under Winger and Dawkins, the Wizards have attempted to enhance their coaching and player-development staffs and have adopted a Thunderesque, all-hands-on-deck approach to player development; whether those investments will pay dividends has yet to be proven. The Wizards have allocated significant chunks of playing time to their young players, hoping that extensive minutes early in players' careers will accelerate their growth. Carrington led all rookies last season in minutes per game, while Sarr ranked second and George finished fifth.

Perhaps the public's biggest misconception about the Wizards' roster-construction plan is that it's singularly focused on winning early lottery picks.

Trying to draft early indeed is an important part of the plan -- and I'll get to that in a second -- but it's not the only part of the plan. Washington has added youngsters wherever and however it can find them. Washington selected Carrington, for instance, at 14th, and acquired his draft rights in a draft-night trade for Deni Avdija. George, also obtained in a draft-night deal, went 24th. The Wizards traded a pair of future second-round picks this offseason for Whitmore, a 2023 20th pick.

The Wizards likely will continue trying to add young prospects, perhaps even at this season's trade deadline.

Washington completed its first season under Winger and Dawkins with the NBA's second-worst record and ended last season with the league's second-worst record. Those finishes were not an accident. In the NBA, you must have elite talent to win big, and since Winger and Dawkins inherited a team with few tradable assets on its roster, they determined that building through the draft was the best strategy. From a lottery odds perspective, a benefit of playing so many inexperienced prospects simultaneously is that they tend to lose large numbers of games.

The bottoming-out strategy worked well during the 2024 draft. The Wizards won the second pick and drafted Sarr, the player they had ranked first on their draft board. The problem was that the draft was nowhere near as talented at its top as the 2023 or 2025 drafts were.

Although Dawkins said Wednesday that he hopes the 2025-26 Wizards will be "a more connected team, a more resilient group and a more confident group," it's also clear that the team has significant incentive to finish near the bottom of the league standings once again.

First, because of a trade made five years ago, Washington will keep its own 2026 first-round pick if, and only if, it's a top-eight pick. Given how the draft lottery works, the Wizards would guarantee a top-eight pick for themselves if they end the season with one of the league's four worst records. If Washington finishes with the fifth-worst record, it will face a 0.6 percent chance of falling to ninth in the draft. If Washington finishes with the sixth-worst record, the percentages will rise a little bit. To put it simply: The more the Wizards lose, the better their chances to keep their first-round pick.

It gets a bit more complicated. As part of its 2023 Bradley Beal trade, Washington gained the right to swap its 2026 first-round pick -- only if it's in the top eight -- with Phoenix's first-round pick. If the Wizards fall to ninth or worse in the draft, their first-round pick will go to the New York Knicks, and the swap rights will evaporate for both the Wizards (and also the Knicks). So, Washington has an even greater incentive to bottom out, because bottoming out would ensure it will keep its own pick and retain its swap rights with Phoenix.

And why is it so important for Washington to draft near the top in 2026? Despite the Wizards' efforts to stockpile prospects, it remains unclear whether any of the young players on their current roster will develop into elite players.

Because of the lottery reforms that went into effect with the 2019 draft, bottoming out these days is less about trying to win than it is about raising your own floor in the draft. Because Washington finished with the league's second-worst record last season, it ran a 20.0 percent chance of falling to sixth, and that's what happened. Team officials are happy to have drafted Tre Johnson, the player they selected at No. 6, but all indications are that the Wizards attempted to trade up to fourth in an effort to select forward Ace Bailey, who went fifth to Utah. Maybe Johnson will turn out to be a better NBA player than Bailey, but having Bailey off the board shows that the difference between drafting fifth and sixth can be a significant difference.

One of the top priorities of Winger and Dawkins' tenure has been to clear up the Wizards' long-term cap sheet. Remember, they inherited Beal and the final four years of Beal's five-year, $251 million contract (with a no-trade clause). Winger and Dawkins have methodically jettisoned long-term salaries, moving not only Beal in 2023 but also Jordan Poole this past summer. By trading Poole and Saddiq Bey to New Orleans in July for CJ McCollum and filler, the Wizards received McCollum's expiring salary and took Poole's $34.0 million salary for 2026-27 off their books.

With Khris Middleton's contract set to expire this season, the Wizards could have $80 million in cap space for the summer of 2026.

Team officials say they don't know what they'll do with that space, and internally, they have compared next summer to a "choose your own adventure" book because of the opportunities their cap flexibility creates. One potential strategy will be to trade McCollum and/or Middleton before the February trade deadline and accept salary for the 2026-27 season if the Wizards also would receive future draft picks or high-level prospects as part of the deal(s).

It is unlikely that the Wizards will offer a maximum-salary contract to a 2026 free agent, a team source said. The 2026 free-agent class is not expected to be a strong one, and it's a stretch to think the rest of the Wizards' roster will be ready to win big at that time. But still, it's not inconceivable that the Wizards could make a bid on a restricted free agent.

With so many youngsters on their roster, the Wizards eventually will have to make some difficult decisions.

"As a front office, we're hoping that people separate themselves," Dawkins said Wednesday. "That's what we're looking for this season, and we are not naive. We understand that going through a rebuild, not every player that you see on our roster is going to be a part of the journey when we get to where we're trying to get to.

"But that's on us to take inventory every single day, realize where we are at, and as an evaluation staff, as a strategy staff, come up with the right questions and try to get those answered, and that's what we're going to do this season."

A key for Washington not only will be making the correct decisions on whom to part with, but also making correct decisions as early in prospects' careers as possible. The longer a young player stagnates on the court or wilts on the bench, the more his trade value declines.

This is the most difficult question to answer, and it's possible Wizards officials don't know the answer yet. But it's safe to say that a team cannot remain purposely bad forever without stunting its young players' growth.

The dream scenario for the season ahead is for some of the youngsters on the roster to demonstrate they will develop into elite players and also to win a high lottery pick in what's expected to be a loaded draft. Given how many youngsters the Wizards have on their roster, perhaps one or two of them will make big strides. And given how the team is expected to have minimal defensive rebounding, given its inexperience and given the possibility of a pick swap with the Suns, it's also possible the Wizards will wind up with a top pick.

A nightmare scenario for Washington for the upcoming season would be for none of the team's current players to show clear progress and for Washington not to win an early lottery pick. It's difficult to envision both bad outcomes occurring, but it's not impossible. And if both bad outcomes happen, would the Wizards consider bottoming out again for the 2026-27 season?

On Wednesday, Dawkins was asked to forecast when, essentially, the Wizards will have a group in place that the franchise can build with and start to win.

He responded that he and Winger have experienced a few rebuilds themselves and have studied other teams' approaches, past and present.

"With us," Dawkins said, "we're still definitely at the very, very early phases of that. ... The players we have in-house are going to dictate how far we go and when we go."