Michigan State football vs. Boston College: 5 determining factors and a prediction

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Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State football's game vs. Boston College, 7:36 p.m. Friday at Spartan Stadium. TV: NBC. Betting line: MSU -4.5

It's still not entirely clear where Aidan Chiles is in his development as a quarterback. In MSU's season-opening win against Western Michigan, he showed growth in his ability to avoid the crippling interception. But shaky pass protection in the second half caused him to sometimes quickly drop his head and look to run and the lack of vertical throws out of the pocket didn't let us see the offense at full go. This will be a different kind of test -- one with more high-leverage situations, where the full offense is more likely to be in play. We'll have a better sense of what the Spartans have right now in their junior quarterback as Saturday night's game plays out.

What we saw from MSU's offensive line run blocking in the first half last week was as promising as anything we've seen in that department in recent memory. Things stalled out a bit in the second half, but some of that might have been game state, personnel changes and WMU's defensive adjustments. The pass protection, which wasn't nearly as encouraging, is just as important. How does it all look this week against an ACC opponent? Does MSU settle on a five-man offensive line group and stick with it? Will this finally be the MSU offensive line that can get a push or create a crease when the tough yards are needed? This will be a telling week.

We saw some of what Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly can be as a tandem for MSU's football team last week. Kelly was as advertised, catching five passes in the first half and seven for 75 yards overall. Marsh wasn't used on anything deep, but did catch a touchdown on a pass that showed his ability to both separate and use his body to protect the football. I think these two are the key to MSU overachieving this season. Because I think, together, they can give teams all sorts of problems. There's no reason to hold anything back this week. Let's see it.

No one is expecting MSU's defense to shut out Boston College the way it did WMU. But there are elements of that performance that, if they're replicated, would bode well for this defense and this MSU season. One is to limit the run game again, which I think MSU has a chance to do. The Spartans allowed WMU just 29 yards on the ground. BC last Saturday managed just 2.5 yards per carry against Fordham, with starter Turbo Richard (a great name for a running back) rushing for 48 yards on 16 attempts. If MSU's defensive front wins battle on the ground, everything will be easier.

This Spartan defense needs an adequate pass rush this season. We know that. They managed four sacks last week. It won't mean a thing until it happens in a game like this. And then is repeated. But if the run defense is what I think it can be and the linebackers and secondary are sound, which I think they might be, this could have the makings of a group that helps keep MSU in a lot of games this season.

The Eagles lost some good players on both sides of the ball, but there's some talent here. Their secondary could be a real strength. Receiver Lewis Bond looks like he might be a difficult cover -- he had 11 catches for 138 yards last week. Quarterback Dylan Lonergan, who missed a practice early this week healing from an undisclosed injury, looks like he has the makings of a decent QB. We'll see. Beating Fordham doesn't tell you a whole lot. I think Bill O'Brien is a good coach, now in his second year, which means he's got more of his guys and he and his staff are more comfortable all the way around. I expect BC to be a little better than a year ago.

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This is a massive game for the Spartans, the sort of early game that could set the trajectory for the season. These are two second-year coaches, which should mean two slightly more seasoned programs than a year ago. MSU should have won that game at BC, if not for four turnovers. Not having Nick Marsh didn't help, either. This is a better MSU team. If the Spartans avoid costly mistakes, here's guessing the Eagles haven't made up the difference.

Make it: MSU 28, Boston 20